Options Alert Pro's staff has experienced first hand how some financial news services simply provide a trade idea but never provide any commentary on why they made the suggested trade.  Options Alert PROTM doesn’t  think that instills much confidence – i.e. to tell someone here’s the recommended trade go do it! Therefore, this blog will provide information on why we have made the recommendations we have. 

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Our goal is to post that information as well as market moving news and what to be aware of in the markets.  Our first priority will be to get you the trade and then follow up with why we made the recommendation here within 24 hours.  Sometimes we are too busy and need the evening to catch up. We hope that you will find the information useful and one that distinguishes Options Alert PRO from other services.

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Longest Winning-Streak in 25 Years!

25 Feb 2017

Yes, it is official the DOW has had the longest uptrend turning in all-time highs since 1992.  An incredible feat to say the least as the Dow Jones industrial average ended marginally higher, recording its 11th straight record close on Friday.  Dow futures briefly fell more than 100 points about 30 minutes before the open. European stocks also fell, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index declining 0.76 percent. Oil seems to have leveled off as the US has become an exporter. Producers and traders shipped out 1.21 million barrels of crude a day from the U.S. in the week that ended February 17, the most in EIA data going back to 1993. Domestic output increased to 9 million barrels per day last week.  Today, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway released its closely-watched annual letter on Saturday, in which the Oracle of Omaha told investors that the holding company's investment gains would continue to be 'substantial' in the coming years and the U.S. economy would continue its 'miraculous' boom. We are watching to buy the dips as they occur and hope that our latest alert on QQQ yesterday hits our projected target next week.

Markets on Solid Path Up - Optik up 179% YTD

18 Feb 2017

Since the Trump election and his continued string of tweets and press conferences stating that he is going to lower taxes, reduce banking regulation and make american companies grow, coupled with the overall ggood earnings reports that markets steadily, if not a t times rapidly, have been moving up. How long wil this last? It is hard to say we've been in an overlal bull market for about 8 years now.  Thre always lurks a black swan but the adverse effects seem to be modest and temporary.  We continue to look for opportunities to enter the market on dips.  We do not see at this time a good long term short and we are hesitant to try to short given the technical indicators we have.  Therefore, we will wait and enter on dips.

80 Days Around the World – 1,000% in 2017?

12 Feb 2017

Actually, it has been 84 days without a single daily decline of 1% or more! The tweets of President Trump have had focused effect but his overall broadcast of doing what is best for US businesses has set the markets on fire! The S%P 500 hasn’t seen a market this hot since 2006. Earnings have overall been very good and that combined with what people think will be favorable treatment of corporate America is enough to keep moving he markets up. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s chief investment strategist, says what he calls the market’s three Ps—positioning, profits, and policies are “consistent with one last 10% melt-up in stocks and commodities in 2017.”   There are always black swans lurking that can have an immediate downturn effect with no prior notice and we know that the market falls fast and recovers slowly.  We continue to watch for opportunities for an entry that will poise the least level of risk.  This year had gotten off to a good start for Optik Options.  At the current pace we are looking at possibly closing the year at over 1,000%.  We will certainly try to hit this mark again there are no guarantees.

Markets Topping?

2 Feb 17

Markets are dynamic and the probability of picking an exact top (or bottom) is unlikely.   We strive to identify a trending move.  There can be signs that indicate a correction is coming. Knowing that we will not be able to pinpoint the exact top (whether it be price or time) a trader can take profits when the market begins to show signs of weakness.  Trends can last a long time, nine months is actually a short rally. Some market topping indicators include:  1) the number of 52-week highs begins to decline, despite growth in indexes, 2) the NYSE advance/decline has peaked and is now declining, even though the S&P and Dow continue higher or have stalled, and 3) the major indexes move below a prior low.  Like the ocean the market always moves in waves, not every decline is a reason to exit the market. However, when a series of signals align, it can provide evidence that the market is creating a top and could be entering a larger correction.  

Trump Market Shaking Tweets – Optik Alert Returns 30%

2 Feb 17

Are we experiencing Trump Tweet Market Volatility (TTMV)?  It sure seems so!  Trump tweets Mexico will pay for the wall.  Boeing is charging too much for Air Force One! The list goes on and on.  And the individual stocks and the market does seem to move on the tweets.  Will the markets eventually desensitize to the tweets are will we all need to monitor closely and trade the tweets?  I think it will be a combination of the two.  I have joked in the past that I wished I owned a small country.  I could short the market and declare war on the United States in the morning. Then I could go long and surrender in the afternoon and make several million dollars.  I have read with interest how some people manipulate the markets and how high frequency trading (HFT) and computers are now 80% of the daily trades.  One thing is volatility is key to making large gains and being on the right side of the trend.  In a years time there are about six (6) very clear signals that there is a market bottom.  Market tops are much harder to pinpoint.  You know you’re at or near a top generally but it is hard to tell if it will remain there for a day or a month.  We will continue to monitor and jump on the right trend.  Our most recent alert returned 30% on the SPY February $228 calls.  We are hopeful to make a number more of those calls for profits in February. 

Trump Rally is Over

21 Jan 2017

The Trump Rally appears to have ended.  Overall the market DOW has climbed 8.2% from the close on Election Day. The DOW had its most impressive run from an election to an inauguration in 20 years. The DOW’s best-ever for an election was in the days leading to Herbert Hoover’s 1929 inauguration, when the Dow industrials climbed 22%. And its worst: the period leading to Barack Obama’s first term, when the index fell 17%. While we will give Trump some credit for the rally we think oil prices help to support the rally as well.  OPEC and Russian announced that they are making progress on cutting crude-oil production which is increasing prices. Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC’ has made collective cuts totaling 1.5 million barrels a day. Oil prices have risen nearly about 20%.  The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is languishing near its lowest level in years, and spreads on high-yield bonds are the lowest in more than two years. We think that the market will continue overall to be bullish but we also think that we will see a pullback very soon that will present a buying opportunity. Historical trends for incoming Republican presidents show that there is a 40% chance the S&P will continue to climb from Inauguration Day for the next 100 days. Only time will tell.  Best of luck to all!

Earnings Season - Optik up 125% YTD

14 Jan 2017

Earnings season has started and banks led the way this past week.  Our alert on Citigroup (C) made a 25% return in just one day!  In fact, thus far this year we are up 125% with one open position remaining from last year.  J.P. Morgan, which is the country’s biggest bank by assets and the world’s largest by market value, broke out Friday reporting a quarterly profit $1.71 beating analyst expectations. Bank of America (BAC) also beat analyst expectations with 40 cents by cutting expenses to offset lower-than-expected revenue.  Wells Fargo however missed expectations with Q4 earnings and revenue, at 96 cents a share and $21.58 billion.  We see 2017 as a year of great volatility with markets overly sensitized to President Elect Trump’s tweeting.  We need to teach the markets that the big dogs bark is much worse than his bite and this it just a methodology to posture and get his adversaries to “think-twice.”  For example, At Mizuho Financial Group in New York a foreign-exchange trader said last year he began discussing with co-workers plans to get the Japanese financial firm to lift its longtime ban on Twitter after Trump’s threats to revise trade policies with Mexico prompted a sell off in the peso. The president-elect has tweeted more than 300 times since the election. Excluding media companies, he has called out publicly traded companies by name or product in 18 separate tweets, including Boeing Inc., Ford and United Technologies.  

Triple Crown Today!

6 Jan 2017

Congratulations!  Today we made history 3 of our 4 active alerts all hit their targets today for an overall return of 75%.  Morgan Stanley (MS), Apple (APPL) and SPY all hit a minimum return of 25% some have continued to rise to provide even larger gains! It is a great way to start off the new year.  The S&P and the Nasdaq all hit new intraday highs and the DOW continues to try to hit 20,000.  As of this writing the DOW is at 19,981.  But, as we have noted is a Dow 20,000 really that significant? The benchmark only represents 30 firms out of the thousands that make up the broader equity market. Moreover, outsize moves in any one of its components, because the gauge is price weighted, can have a big effect on the Dow. Also, the largest firm that has pushed the Dow has been Goldman (GS).  We continue to see volatility ahead especially since the President Elect tweets seem to have focused and broad market effects!  Time will tell if the markets will eventually become desensitized to Mr. Trump’s tweets.  Happy New Year!

Positive Start to 2017

4 Jan 2017

2017 is off to a good start with the markets up.  We've carried over into 2017 a few alerts as well as some new alerts already this year.  Oil seems to continue to be a significant factor in the markets direction. Tensions in the Middle East escalated quickly over the weekend. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Sudan have broken diplomatic relations with Iran while the United Arab Emirates has recalled their ambassador from Tehran.  As oil goes so does the market. Interest rates will also be in focus for all of 2017. The Fed have indicated that they might have to raise interest rates faster than the “gradual” pace that they have stressed for some time, according to minutes of the December meeting. The news of this meeting suggest that the era of a predictable and boring Fed may be over.  Fed officials have penciled in three quarter-point rate increases in 2017 instead of two seen in September. Presently, we have active alerts on XOM, MS, SPY and AAPL.

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