Options Alert Pro's staff has experienced first hand how some financial news services simply provide a trade idea but never provide any commentary on why they made the suggested trade.  Options Alert PROTM doesn’t  think that instills much confidence – i.e. to tell someone here’s the recommended trade go do it! Therefore, this blog will provide information on why we have made the recommendations we have. 

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Our goal is to post that information as well as market moving news and what to be aware of in the markets.  Our first priority will be to get you the trade and then follow up with why we made the recommendation here within 24 hours.  Sometimes we are too busy and need the evening to catch up. We hope that you will find the information useful and one that distinguishes Options Alert PRO from other services.

TM

Trump Rally is Over

21 Jan 2017

The Trump Rally appears to have ended.  Overall the market DOW has climbed 8.2% from the close on Election Day. The DOW had its most impressive run from an election to an inauguration in 20 years. The DOW’s best-ever for an election was in the days leading to Herbert Hoover’s 1929 inauguration, when the Dow industrials climbed 22%. And its worst: the period leading to Barack Obama’s first term, when the index fell 17%. While we will give Trump some credit for the rally we think oil prices help to support the rally as well.  OPEC and Russian announced that they are making progress on cutting crude-oil production which is increasing prices. Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC’ has made collective cuts totaling 1.5 million barrels a day. Oil prices have risen nearly about 20%.  The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is languishing near its lowest level in years, and spreads on high-yield bonds are the lowest in more than two years. We think that the market will continue overall to be bullish but we also think that we will see a pullback very soon that will present a buying opportunity. Historical trends for incoming Republican presidents show that there is a 40% chance the S&P will continue to climb from Inauguration Day for the next 100 days. Only time will tell.  Best of luck to all!

Earnings Season - Optik up 125% YTD

14 Jan 2017

Earnings season has started and banks led the way this past week.  Our alert on Citigroup (C) made a 25% return in just one day!  In fact, thus far this year we are up 125% with one open position remaining from last year.  J.P. Morgan, which is the country’s biggest bank by assets and the world’s largest by market value, broke out Friday reporting a quarterly profit $1.71 beating analyst expectations. Bank of America (BAC) also beat analyst expectations with 40 cents by cutting expenses to offset lower-than-expected revenue.  Wells Fargo however missed expectations with Q4 earnings and revenue, at 96 cents a share and $21.58 billion.  We see 2017 as a year of great volatility with markets overly sensitized to President Elect Trump’s tweeting.  We need to teach the markets that the big dogs bark is much worse than his bite and this it just a methodology to posture and get his adversaries to “think-twice.”  For example, At Mizuho Financial Group in New York a foreign-exchange trader said last year he began discussing with co-workers plans to get the Japanese financial firm to lift its longtime ban on Twitter after Trump’s threats to revise trade policies with Mexico prompted a sell off in the peso. The president-elect has tweeted more than 300 times since the election. Excluding media companies, he has called out publicly traded companies by name or product in 18 separate tweets, including Boeing Inc., Ford and United Technologies.  

Triple Crown Today!

6 Jan 2017

Congratulations!  Today we made history 3 of our 4 active alerts all hit their targets today for an overall return of 75%.  Morgan Stanley (MS), Apple (APPL) and SPY all hit a minimum return of 25% some have continued to rise to provide even larger gains! It is a great way to start off the new year.  The S&P and the Nasdaq all hit new intraday highs and the DOW continues to try to hit 20,000.  As of this writing the DOW is at 19,981.  But, as we have noted is a Dow 20,000 really that significant? The benchmark only represents 30 firms out of the thousands that make up the broader equity market. Moreover, outsize moves in any one of its components, because the gauge is price weighted, can have a big effect on the Dow. Also, the largest firm that has pushed the Dow has been Goldman (GS).  We continue to see volatility ahead especially since the President Elect tweets seem to have focused and broad market effects!  Time will tell if the markets will eventually become desensitized to Mr. Trump’s tweets.  Happy New Year!

Positive Start to 2017

4 Jan 2017

2017 is off to a good start with the markets up.  We've carried over into 2017 a few alerts as well as some new alerts already this year.  Oil seems to continue to be a significant factor in the markets direction. Tensions in the Middle East escalated quickly over the weekend. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Sudan have broken diplomatic relations with Iran while the United Arab Emirates has recalled their ambassador from Tehran.  As oil goes so does the market. Interest rates will also be in focus for all of 2017. The Fed have indicated that they might have to raise interest rates faster than the “gradual” pace that they have stressed for some time, according to minutes of the December meeting. The news of this meeting suggest that the era of a predictable and boring Fed may be over.  Fed officials have penciled in three quarter-point rate increases in 2017 instead of two seen in September. Presently, we have active alerts on XOM, MS, SPY and AAPL.

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